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Silent Hunter UK Nov 5 '12 10:03am

US Presidential Election Results thread
 
Election Day isn't until tomorrow, but I thought I'd best get this thread up.

Bbender Nov 5 '12 10:08am

Interesting that someone with UK in his name seems to be the most anxious :).

Zoycitenega Nov 5 '12 10:10am

Finally! I can stop having the sentatorial-wannabes call my house. I swear I'm going to write in mickey mouse.

Oh...you mean the presidential election? Woot! I can stop ignoring facebook when it tells me the world's going to end because either Obama's a Muslim or Romney's a Mormon.

Am kind of sick of elections, mainly senatorial. Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown must have my house on speed-dial because they call every single night.

Silent Hunter UK Nov 5 '12 10:13am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bbender (Post 6264981)
Interesting that someone with UK in his name seems to be the most anxious :).

I'm a amateur
election studier
psephologist.

Solaris Nov 5 '12 1:14pm

I'm predicting an Obama win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zoycitenega (Post 6264983)
Oh...you mean the presidential election? Woot! I can stop ignoring facebook when it tells me the world's going to end because either Obama's a Muslim or Romney's a Mormon.

People like that make me laugh.

Silent Hunter UK Nov 5 '12 2:47pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solaris (Post 6265263)
I'm predicting an Obama win.

As am I. He's ahead in too many swing states for Romney to win, unless the polls blow up big time - which historical precedence says is about 1 in 10. So, basically roll a d10 - Romney needs a natural 1.

Wippit Guud Nov 5 '12 3:00pm

Dice Roll: 1d10z
d10 Results: 3
Romney Wins (3)

Lord Ben Nov 5 '12 4:21pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silent Hunter UK (Post 6265454)
As am I. He's ahead in too many swing states for Romney to win, unless the polls blow up big time - which historical precedence says is about 1 in 10. So, basically roll a d10 - Romney needs a natural 1.

Depends on the actual turnout. A lot of the polls use samples of similar to 2008 or better levels of turnout for the Dem's. Frankly I don't think this is accurate as those same polls show greater enthusiasm for R's than D's and that has historically had a huge effect on turnout. They also show Romney winning independents by huge margins, Obama won them by huge in 2008. Undecideds break towards the challenger in the last days of the race.

Those three factors means Romney wins in a landslide.

Cthulhu Nov 5 '12 4:25pm

A recent CNN poll shows Romney up 22% among Independents over Obama, if that means anything. Plus Obama isn't pulling in the numbers he did in 2008.

I think it does and we are looking at a Romney win.

Savayan Nov 5 '12 4:38pm

I think that you guys, at best, might be looking at a reversal of Bush term 1, Obama loses the popular vote and wins the electoral. Obama has to lose basically every single swing state in order for Romney to get in, which doesn't seem all that likely. Based on the latest polling I've seen, Obama is 26 electoral votes ahead going in (216 vs 191), and that jumps by up to 100 points if you discount Rassmussen's polls due to their methodology issues. I don't think you're going to see a Red White House for at least four years.


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