Worldly Talk

Civil discussion and debate on real world events and issues.


US on the Verge of Legalizing Cannabis?

   
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cthulhu View Post
So your telling me because the man IS biased his research is by default unimpeachable?
Of course not, how did you come to that conclusion? I've yet to see research suggesting this guy's research is illegitimate, have you? Skepticism is good, but skepticism for the sake of skepticism is no good, considering that marijuana is the vast majority of the black market trade as far drugs are concerned, and that at least half the country has lit up in the past month or so is telling, this stuff is an untapped market, there hasn't been any credible research saying Marijuana isn't valuable, so i'm more willing to go with the detailed report that has been released and is generally accepted to be telling the truth more or less on the value of marijuana.

Go ahead and be skeptical. Skepticism is healthy (in reasonable doses). But if you want to 'impeach' his research, then 'impeach' his research, not him.

edit: ninja'd

Quote:
Originally Posted by ultima22689 View Post
I've yet to see research suggesting this guy's research is illegitimate, have you?
http://blog.sfgate.com/smellthetruth...top-cash-crop/

Quote:
But these statistics are wrong, according to the new book.

The authors write: “Analyses purporting to support the claim (that marijuana is the nation’s leading cash crop) must contort the numbers, citing the retail price of marijuana but the farm-gate price of other products, or pretending that all marijuana consumed in the United States in sinsemilla, or ignoring the fact that most marijuana used in the United States is imported, or simply starting with implausible estimates of U.S. production.”

Gettman’s figure of $35.8 billion is particularly specious, the authors contend, because it comes from multiplying a weighted average price of $1,606 per pound by an inflated annual production figure of 22.3 million pounds. The resulting number “is larger than the best estimates of the retail sales value of all marijuana consumed in the United States – including the marijuana that is imported,” according to the book.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cthulhu View Post
http://blog.sfgate.com/smellthetruth...top-cash-crop/
Fair enough, it's a given that alot of drug traffic is imported here rather than grown here, so assuming the above research is correct, it's still a very valuable crop even with the majority of it being imported and being illegal, valued around the same levels of hay and grapes and such. So imagine if it were legal, the demand for marijuana is no doubt high (no pun intended) considering it is the breadwinner for drug cartels, it's relatively cheap being a hardy plant, and supposedly vastly safer than tobacco, if it the stuff becomes truly legal, i'd be willing to bet it would eventually become larger than the tobacco industry once it becomes a fully realized commercial product.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ultima22689 View Post
Fair enough, it's a given that alot of drug traffic is imported here rather than grown here, so assuming the above research is correct, it's still a very valuable crop even with the majority of it being imported and being illegal, valued around the same levels of hay and grapes and such.
I never argued that MJ isn't a valuable crop. Its obviously worth billions at the least annually. it was only the level of Gett's claims that made me think something was funny in Denmark.

Quote:
So imagine if it were legal, the demand for marijuana is no doubt high (no pun intended) considering it is the breadwinner for drug cartels, it's relatively cheap being a hardy plant, and supposedly vastly safer than tobacco, if it the stuff becomes truly legal, i'd be willing to bet it would eventually become larger than the tobacco industry once it becomes a fully realized commercial product.
Maybe if it becomes as popular as you say it will. To me its just exchanging one cancer stick for another that also makes you feel funny. But I'm not going to vote against any state's attempts to legalize it. It will be interesting to see where it goes.

As a teacher who has had to teach kids who were under the influence, I would strongly suggest the same rules be applied to marijuana as are currently applied to tobacco. Ever tried to teach kids with what is effectively a zero short-term memory? Minimum age to purchase, not permitted to be smoked inside any public building and so on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggie2 View Post
As a teacher who has had to teach kids who were under the influence, I would strongly suggest the same rules be applied to marijuana as are currently applied to tobacco. Ever tried to teach kids with what is effectively a zero short-term memory? Minimum age to purchase, not permitted to be smoked inside any public building and so on.
100% agree, and that seems to be the sensible agreement most folks have when the talk of legal cannabis is on the table.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ultima22689 View Post
Of course not, how did you come to that conclusion? I've yet to see research suggesting this guy's research is illegitimate, have you?
The author is estimating the production and then basing the value on the retail price of marijuana then comparing it to the bulk price of corn that farmers get. If you use the same methods with corn you'd get a widely different number. US production of 10 billion bushels of corn is 560 billion pounds, at $1.60 per pound ($1.50 for a 14.75oz can) you get ~$900 billion dollars worth of corn instead of the $23 billion the author cites.

There are also problems with his estimations of how much marijuana is produced. He assumes 8% of outdoor crops and 2% of indoor are seized therefore improvements in the methods of finding crops and destroying them won't decrease the estimate of how much is sold, it'll increase it. If they double their effectiveness from 2 to 4% in indoor detection then it'll show, by his methods, as an additional $11+ billion that was produced indoor that year.

According to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annual_...use_by_country 13.7% of Americans used cannabis within the year, at a population of 300 million that means 40 million people used it. At 35 billion for the cash crop that means a bit under $1000 per person for every smoker on average. His total value seems roughly ballpark to me but where he makes the error in counting it as a cash crop is that he's using the retail price for the crop.

Doh, took too long writing it. Cthulhu found the same basic thing while I was analyzing it myself... heh.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Solaris View Post
Largely? I think the American people are gonna go "It's about ****ing time" - even the ones who don't smoke, like me.
Screw that War on Drugs. Screw it in its police state face.
Very well said.




 

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