Worldly Talk

Civil discussion and debate on real world events and issues.


Earthquake Prediction

   
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Yes, but earthquakes aren't sunrises, they are far less predictable. Just saying it might be worth a second look at his model, instead of dismissing him as a crackpot because he was going to scare people about an earthquake that actually came...

And you think that the scientific community didn't? Despite what some fringe elements would have you believe, there is not some sort of world wide conspiracy of scientists to suppress cranks. If you can't pass peer review and your method can't match or surpass current methods then you're either mistaken or a crank depending on how hard you hold to your idea. If this was an isolated incident, you might have something but it's not like this is the first time his model was brought out.

This article is blown out of proportion. Obviously, the government must have hired these men to do a job (earthquake prediction) and then a public outcry probably had them jailed when originally they would have been sued or something. Not since the condemnation of galileo? Ignorance happens all the time! It only delays the appeals process these days (unless scientists such as these have no one that cares about them; which they clearly do, given that this article was published to begin with).

Silly.

Now here I thought this would about the 'big one' that's going to happen around BC and will probably reach the lower mainland where I live. They say that if it doesn't happen before 2040 (or something) than it will have surpassed about 90% of all intervals. I hope to be away from where I currently live before then, lol.

I think when you are part of a government funded research facility and someone comes up with a competing hypothesis that could challenge your position and renown, and you have seen a lot of legitimate crackpots it becomes far to easy to simply label them a crackpot as well, especially if say the government that funds you is telling you "look, this crackpot is getting people nervous, we need you to do something".
I'm not saying this guy is right, I'm just sayin that since his prediction proved true his model might be worth a second look.

Except that for all we know it has had a second look, and a third. In fact it probably has. Chances are that his being right was just a coincidence... Of course we're all just arguing from assumptions. Anyone have any actual information on this guy?

Quote:
Originally Posted by impfireball View Post
This article is blown out of proportion. Obviously, the government must have hired these men to do a job (earthquake prediction) and then a public outcry probably had them jailed when originally they would have been sued or something.
Sued? For what? They might've lost their jobs, at worst, but even that would be unlikely... and sad. If every scientist whose model did not predict a statistical fluke lost their job (or was sued, although there isn't actually to sue them over), then by the very nature of statistical flukes, you'd have no scientists left.

Quote:
Originally Posted by impfireball View Post
Not since the condemnation of galileo? Ignorance happens all the time!
But most of us like to think it doesn't happen all the time to the degree where scientists are jailed or otherwise prosecuted due to it in what's supposed to be a civilised country.

Quote:
Originally Posted by impfireball View Post
(unless scientists such as these have no one that cares about them; which they clearly do, given that this article was published to begin with).
Having a journalist who cares enough to write an article and having someone who cares about them and has a way of getting them out of jail are worlds apart.

it may have gotten a repeated look, but in terms of those defending these scientists predictions he is still a crackpot. because what we have here is a mess where politics got mixed into teh science, and the question is whether that happened before it went to court or afterwards.




 

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