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Worldly Talk

Civil discussion and debate on real world events and issues.


US Presidential Election Results thread

 
Nate Silver 2016! He, so far, has predicted to the letter the results.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zelkon View Post
I have more respect for most of the people on this forum more than Romney.
Yeah, I mean I figured we all share a hobby of gaming so it's a decent forum to hang out on where the rules are typically enforced on being overly insulting. Hopefully it doesn't stop being that way in the heat of an election and this continues to be a place for a polite exchange of ideas.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zelkon View Post
Nate Silver 2016! He, so far, has predicted to the letter the results.
Small quibble, he doesn't really predict so much as analyze what the polls say. He doesn't factor in trends or anything of the sort, only pure hard numbers. I was wrong and he was right, but I still think an approach that factors in momentum and such along with those hard numbers is superior. It'll be interesting to see which polls were most accurate and the breakdown of the electorate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Ben View Post
Small quibble, he doesn't really predict so much as analyze what the polls say. He doesn't factor in trends or anything of the sort, only pure hard numbers. I was wrong and he was right, but I still think an approach that factors in momentum and such along with those hard numbers is superior. It'll be interesting to see which polls were most accurate and the breakdown of the electorate.
He did a whole thing around momentum on the Daily Show. He most definitely factors it in. He also explained how people only use the first part of the definition of momentum, and disregard the second part.
Edit: It's been a pleasure arguing with you guys. See you in four.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Surrealistik View Post
C'mon Cthulhu; you know you want to spew vitriol and bile, why not be every bit as ungracious as you certainly would have been had you won? At least be true to yourself.


http://conservativetears.tumblr.com/
Thanks for reminding me why I don't post in Wordly Talk. I know Republicans on MW are in the minority and it seems every time one posts, they get dumped on.

Off I go back to my world of Paranoia where I am supreme Overlord!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Ben View Post
Small quibble, he doesn't really predict so much as analyze what the polls say. He doesn't factor in trends or anything of the sort, only pure hard numbers. I was wrong and he was right, but I still think an approach that factors in momentum and such along with those hard numbers is superior. It'll be interesting to see which polls were most accurate and the breakdown of the electorate.
Trends are part of the numbers that make up his model. A significant part, really. His numbers looks at trends in polling data and extrapolate from them. There was an article about a week ago going over the model, including current poll results, weighted for reliability; trends, weighted by regularity of poll sampling; and some other stuff, and the weights of the various components.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cthulhu View Post
This is a bitter loss, Surrealistic. I have every reason not to be happy. But as we can see I'm not the one being an ass. Your side won so what's your excuse?
Undisguised delight at the selfish, the irrational, the absurd, manipulated and mislead of America's political spectrum having their hopes utterly crushed. Of seeing a presumptuous, cynical plutocrat and his ilk get their just deserts, and the United States drawing closer to the day when it finally leaves the swamp of Randian sociopathy to fully embrace righteous European socialism.

OK guys, you all get precisely one group warning: Be excellent to each other, as per the site's golden rules.

Well, some people have already taken to being insufferable I see. Despite that, I'd like to post a warning. Anyone proceeding to act like Randy Marsh from South Park's Season 12 Episode 12, "About Last Night" will be banned.





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