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Depends on the actual turnout. A lot of the polls use samples of similar to 2008 or better levels of turnout for the Dem's. Frankly I don't think this is accurate as those same polls show greater enthusiasm for R's than D's and that has historically had a huge effect on turnout. They also show Romney winning independents by huge margins, Obama won them by huge in 2008. Undecideds break towards the challenger in the last days of the race. Those three factors means Romney wins in a landslide. |
2. The "independents" number is now levelling and many of those so-called independents are actually Tea Party supporters.
3. There is no evidence that "undecideds break towards the challenger" is the norm or even common.