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Dice Roller Issue

Dice Roller Issue

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Relevant Links: https://www.myth-weavers.com/showthr...9#post14040209

Message: In a combat post, I am rolling d20s for attacks for NPCs. And not that I want to hurt the PCs, but I've rolled 4 straight natural 1s, including in a situation with advantage. Is something up with the dice roller, or does Strahd want the PCs to win this fight?

Dice Roll: 10d20
d20 Results: 7, 20, 20, 12, 20, 18, 16, 18, 11, 12 (Total = 154)

Dice Roll: 10d20
d20 Results: 14, 4, 11, 3, 17, 15, 11, 16, 5, 8 (Total = 104)

EDIT: Seems working to me.

Have you considered that Strahd is just unlucky? (Or cursed by the gods of Ravenloft, or something)

Originally Posted by TheFred View Post
Have you considered that Strahd is just unlucky? (Or cursed by the gods of Ravenloft, or something)
Well, the group is fighting Izek Strasny and 10 guards in Vallaki right now. And out of 11 combatants, one of whom has multiple attacks, only 1 attack roll succeeded. Not a bad thing as the group has high AC at this point. But 4 straight natural 1s on a d20, including a pair of them on an advantage roll? Seems highly unlikely to me.

man it's just luck, I've recently rolled ones on several combat turns in my games, including one that had a d12 rolling a one and a d20 rolling a one. So yeah it's rare but sometimes it just happens like that

I can't find the thread now, but we changed the algorithm for dice rolls quite some time ago to address randomness concerns. It's far more than random enough.

Four straight 1s is highly likely. No, if you just roll four d20s, the chances are only one in 160,000, which seems quite small... but consider how many d20s are rolled on this site. Pretty soon, someone is going to roll four ones in a row. You think it's weird because it's you who rolled it, but earlier I rolled a 4, a 17, a 6 and an 11, in that order, which is exactly as unlikely.

That's kind of how randomness works - uncommon things happen (uncommonly, but they do).

(In fact, numbers of runs is a simple way of categorising the apparent randomness of data, with too few long runs being a good indicator that data is not random, as well as two many - with coin tosses, for example, you might be surprised at how many all heads or all tails are expected for a large enough data set; ask a statistician if you're interested )

Yeah, if you aren't seeing ANY extremely unlikely stuff, that's pretty darn suspicious in itself if the set is large enough.

I recall seeing some stuff a few years back about multiple lottery winners. Not guys who who were getting a few wins on scratch tickets mind you, but people who have hit large prizes in stuff like Powerball. While the odds of it happening to a SPECIFIC person are extremely tiny, the odds of it happening to someone, somewhere, are actually quite good, at least for two wins. I've seen the odds worked out, can't pretend to evaluate the validity of the math but it seemed solid.

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